US Oil Rig Count Holds Steady at 463 as Total Rig Count Slips and Crude Posts Second Weekly Loss

The Baker Hughes weekly rig count released on November 13 showed total active US drilling rigs fell by 3 to 601, the first decline in six weeks, driven entirely by a drop in gas rigs. Oil rigs held flat at 463, unchanged from the prior week and 46 above the same point a year ago. Gas rigs fell by 4 to 127, while miscellaneous rigs rose by 1 to 11. At the basin level, the Permian added 2 rigs to reach 275, while Eagle Ford, Williston, Granite Wash, Cana Woodford, and DJ Niobrara were all unchanged.

Crude prices settled mixed and posted a second consecutive weekly decline. December WTI futures settled at $88.56 per barrel, down 18 cents, while December Brent settled at $95.84, up just 2 cents. The IEA flagged that global oil markets are set to swing into a supply surplus for the first time since the start of the Iran war, adding downward pressure. Money managers cut their net-long position in Brent futures and options by 48,157 contracts to 133,813 in the week ending November 10, with long-only positions falling 31,163 and short-only positions rising 16,994. Ed Morse of Hartree Partners said oil could fall to $50 a barrel depending on how OPEC responds and how the Iran conflict resolves.

Geopolitical crosscurrents kept a floor under prices. President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, dimming prospects for a quick resolution to the conflict and lending crude some support. The IEA also said emergency stock releases would pick up through February. Meanwhile, West African crude grades such as Nigeria's Forcados and Qua Iboe have fallen sharply this month, with tanker hire rates to Europe dropping to roughly $151,000 a day, less than half the rate seen at the end of October.

Russian diesel exports slumped 31% week-on-week to around 337,000 barrels a day in the first week of November following renewed Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, including a hit on the 290,000 barrel-per-day Volgograd plant. Overall Russian refined product exports still rose 4% to 1.64 million barrels a day, the highest weekly total since June, as fuel oil and feedstock volumes offset the diesel drop.

In Canada, Alberta announced it will introduce a new royalty regime for oil sands projects starting in 2027, cutting the rate on new developments to 2% of revenue for the first five years, rising by one percentage point annually to 6% by years nine and ten. The current framework charges up to 40% depending on oil prices and project payback status. The province framed the move as an incentive to spur investment and boost output to fill a proposed new crude pipeline to Canada's west coast. Separately, the Canadian federal government injected $140 million into a west coast LNG project backed by Indonesia's richest person as part of Prime Minister Carney's push to diversify exports away from the US.