World Bank Forecasts 23% Surge in Global Commodity Prices in 2026 Driven by Middle East War and Supply Shocks

The World Bank projects global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven by the ongoing war in the Middle East, grain shipment disruptions, and extreme weather events. Energy prices are expected to lead the surge, climbing 32% in 2026 to a four-year high, while food commodity prices are forecast to rise 10% in 2026 followed by a further 7% in 2027.

Precious metals are set to be among the sharpest movers, with prices projected to jump 40% in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated, though some moderation is expected in 2027. The World Bank warned that any escalation in the Middle East conflict or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push energy prices even higher, with an adverse scenario potentially triggering a broad surge in both energy and food prices that drives global inflation higher.

The institution noted it has already extended $8.7 billion in support to 25 countries facing fiscal pressures and the economic impacts of the Iran war, underscoring the scale of disruption the conflict has generated across commodity markets and vulnerable economies.