WTI Crude Settles at $100 After IEA Slashes Demand and Supply Forecasts Despite Sharp Weekly Gain

Oil prices slipped Friday but still posted a substantial weekly gain as Middle East supply risks continued to dominate the market. October WTI crude settled at $100.05 per barrel, down $2.43 or 2.37% on the day, while October RBOB gasoline fell nearly 1.5%. Brent and WTI both snapped multiday winning streaks, pulling back from Thursday's 6.7% surge that had carried WTI to a 3.5-month high.

The International Energy Agency released updated forecasts Friday that weighed on sentiment. The IEA now expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, roughly 6% below 2025 levels and steeper than its prior August forecast of a 4% drop. On the demand side, the agency projects a fall of 2.5 million barrels per day this year, a sharper contraction than previously expected, as diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked and hostilities continue to restrict normal Middle East oil flows. The IEA also warned that shrinking inventories and a refining system stretched to its limit could tighten markets further. OPEC separately cut its own 2026 demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, its fifth consecutive downgrade.

Supply disruptions underpinned the week's gains. Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on Thursday, well below the ten-day average of 15, as ongoing conflict with Iran curtailed Persian Gulf shipping. Houthi forces also seized Yemen's port of Mocha, raising further concerns about Red Sea trade routes. The combined effect of constrained supply and a bearish demand outlook left traders balancing competing signals heading into the weekend.