EIA Forecasts 21% Higher Heating Oil Bills This Winter While Natural Gas and Propane Costs Fall

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a sharply divided outlook for household heating costs in the 2026-27 winter, with heating oil users facing steep increases while natural gas and propane customers expect relief. Homes relying on heating oil, roughly 3% of U.S. households concentrated in the Northeast, are forecast to pay about 21% more than last winter. The EIA projects heating oil prices themselves will rise approximately 30%, with milder-than-normal weather in the Northeast partially offsetting that price surge and limiting the net expenditure increase to 21%.

By contrast, the majority of American homes heated by natural gas or propane are expected to spend less this winter than they did last year, providing a counterweight to the headline increase for oil-dependent households. The overall picture from the EIA is described as mixed, with the direction of costs varying significantly depending on the fuel type and geography.