Markets Hold Steady Ahead of September PCE Inflation Report as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Fall Sharply

Financial markets entered the final session of September 2026 in cautious but stabilizing mode, with investors focused squarely on the release of the PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred price gauge, as the data threatened to set the tone for the entire fourth quarter. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures each ticked up 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.21%, as markets attempted to claw back ground lost to sticky inflation fears and elevated Treasury yields in recent sessions.

Treasury yields slipped ahead of the print after a dovish-leaning speech from a Fed official muted rate-hike bets, with European yields falling in sympathy alongside a pullback in oil prices. Fed rate-hike odds fell sharply to 42.6% from roughly 70% just two days earlier, a move market participants described as bullish for risk assets including crypto.

Bitcoin traded just below $84,000 heading into the data, while gold was on pace for a monthly decline under the weight of uncertainty around the Fed's next move. In equities, Apple fell 2.66% in late-session trading, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while Boeing bucked the trend with a nearly 2% gain to lead Dow advancers. Wall Street was broadly mixed as the PCE report loomed, with the result carrying added political weight weeks before the US midterm elections given voter sensitivity to prices.