NYT/Siena Polls Show Democrats Leading All 7 Key Senate Races the Night Before 2026 Midterms

Final New York Times/Siena polls released late Sunday show Democrats ahead in every state expected to determine Senate control, including Kansas and Texas, which have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 and 1988 respectively. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Roger Marshall 49% to 44% among likely voters, a finding that immediately shifted prediction markets: both Polymarket and Kalshi moved Hamilton to the favorite in that race as Trump held what was billed as his final pre-midterm rally in the state.

Democrats also lead in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Ohio, hold an edge in Alaska and are effectively tied in Iowa, according to the polling. The Kansas race carries an added legal dimension: the DOJ is pursuing a criminal investigation into alleged vote-splitting involving a second candidate with a similar name to one already on the ballot, and Alaska has separately ordered its own state probe into a comparable situation, with both races potentially affecting which party controls the chamber.

In Michigan, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens appeared alongside Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers at Perfecting Church in Detroit two days before the election, backing his Black-owned business platform, a bipartisan crossover that drew attention given her prior primary disputes. Meanwhile a Wall Street Journal report found that Democratic moderates and progressive factions are already trading blame behind the scenes over who has hurt the party more heading into Tuesday, even as the party stands on the verge of recapturing the Senate majority.