Market Flux Event
Trump Rules Out Iran Strike Before Midterms, Sending Oil Lower
Read this in the Market Flux appPresident Donald Trump announced he will not order a military strike on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, describing ongoing diplomatic talks with Tehran as "productive" and explicitly tying any future military decision to the post-election calendar. Israel has been pressing Washington to act immediately, but small signs are emerging that Trump favors giving mediators more time, a posture that directly pressured oil prices, which had been elevated by war-risk premiums tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Oil fell toward $103 a barrel after Trump's announcement, trimming gains that had built up as the conflict pushed energy prices higher and public support for the war declined. The diplomatic pivot eased near-term supply-disruption fears even as the broader geopolitical situation remains unresolved.
Separately, Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revived bilateral trade talks ahead of the midterms, with Carney saying both sides would work on outlining a mutually beneficial trade plan in the coming weeks. The Canadian dollar edged higher on the news. On the domestic political front, a judge dismissed Trump's attempt to preemptively block Alaska election results, and Trump has suggested he may challenge midterm outcomes, though historical market data suggests investors have tended to look past disputed electoral results.
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- SeekingAlphaTrump, Carney revive U.S.-Canada trade talks ahead of midterms $CAD:USD #business #stockmarket #markets
- Business今日必读 🌎美国中期选举进入最后冲刺 🪙币安遭遇史上最大网络盗窃 📉中国央行和证监会或开会稳市 获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》与音频播报，聚焦中国与全球市场最新动向，并有周末特别推送。 A daily Chinese-language briefing and audio broadcast of what's moving markets in China and around the world. Plus, a weekend edition.
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- Amena__BakrSmall signs emerging that Trump is willing to give more time to mediators talking to Iran while on the other hand Israel appears to be pushing hard for the US to strike right after the elections. #OOTT
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- TuckerCarlsonUnder pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
- WsjThe U.S. Once Dominated the World’s Oceans. China’s Xi is Changing That.
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- Sino_Market🇨🇳China Q3 coal-fired generation and thermal-coal use decline; coal stocks generally sufficient for winter peak — NEA The National Energy Administration said on Nov. 2 that China’s coal-fired generation and its share of power output fell in Q3 2026 as the energy transition progresses. Coal-fired generation fell YoY by 4.0% in July, 4.6% in August and 1.9% in September; thermal-coal consumption declined accordingly. After coal’s share of power generation first dipped below 50% in 1H, it fell further to 49.1% at end-September. The share of annual newly added coal-fired generation in total new electricity demand continued to fall, reaching 4.4% at end-September. Stocks: as of Oct. 25 Bohai Rim ports held 26.92 mln t of coal, up 2.15 mln t YoY; Qinhuangdao held 5.95 mln t, up 0.42 mln t YoY. Nationwide centrally dispatched power plants held 210 mln t of coal, equivalent to about 35 days’ supply, roughly in line with the three-year average. The NEA said accelerated coal production and supply measures have steadied supply, narrowed the supply-demand gap and, together with stable consumption and adequate inventories, provide a solid base for winter peak supply. ( )
- HormuzLetterBREAKING: Trump may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran under direct pressure from Netanyahu, Tucker Carlson says. He says "the target would be Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran," where Israel claims Iran has restarted its nuclear program. "Bibi calls Trump about it every day," he says, adding that no conventional weapon can destroy Pickaxe Mountain. "Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend," which would be November 7, he adds.
- Zerohedge*US PUSHES TO RESTORE RUSSIA GAS SALES TO EUROPE VIA UKRAINE: WSJ *US ENVOYS JARED KUSHNER AND STEVE WITKOFF BROACHED IDEA: WSJ
- Cointelegraph🇺🇸 BIG: Tucker Carlson claims the Trump administration may be days away from a nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site under pressure from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. He says Trump could decide by Nov. 7. The White House hasn’t commented.
- BullTheoryioBREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tucker Carlson says President Trump could be days away from ordering a NUCLEAR STRIKE on Iran under pressure from Benjamin Netanyahu. He says the target could be Pickaxe Mountain, where Israeli intelligence claims Iran has restarted nuclear enrichment.
- Unusual_WhalesBREAKING: "Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program," per Tucker Carlson
- ReutersDeeper China-Oman ties strategic for both sides, Xi says
- StaunovoTrump Searches for a Fall Guy to Blame for Iran The president might resume strikes, but he is also questioning allies about the performances of Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine.
- RedboxWireXi says strengthening China-Oman relations is strategically important for both countries.