Market Flux Event
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump to Highest Since May 2023 in NY Fed September Survey
Read this in the Market Flux appAmerican consumers' one-year inflation expectations surged to 3.90% in September, up sharply from 3.58% in August and well above the 3.64% forecast, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly survey. That reading is the highest since May 2023 and signals growing concern among households about near-term price pressures.
Longer-dated expectations also moved higher at the three-year horizon, rising to 3.25% from 3.19% in August, while five-year expectations edged down slightly to 3.00% from 3.01%, suggesting consumers see elevated inflation as more of a near-term than a structural problem. The survey also showed households expect faster spending growth and higher commodity prices, while reporting increased pessimism about their personal finances and current access to credit.
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Sources
- DeItaoneNY FED: U.S. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE SHARPLY U.S. consumers’ 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.9% in September from 3.6%, the highest since May 2023, according to the NY Fed. Three-year expectations edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%, while five-year expectations held at 3.0%. Households also expect faster spending and higher commodity prices, while becoming more pessimistic about their finances and current credit access.
- FinancialjuiceNY FED 1 YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ACTUAL 3.9% (FORECAST 3.64%, PREVIOUS 3.58%) $MACRO
- LiveSquawkNY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Sep: 3.90% (est 3.64%; prev 3.58%) - 3-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.3% (prev 3.2%) - 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.0% (prev 3.0%)
- CnbcInflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
- NaeemAslam23US SEP NY FED 1Y CONSUMER INFL EXP RISE TO 3.90% (3.58% AUG) US SEP 3Y CONSUMER INFL EXP RISE TO 3.25% (3.19% AUG) US SEP 5Y CONSUMER INFL EXP FALL TO 3.00% (3.01% AUG)
- Seeking AlphaConsumers' short- and medium-term inflation expectations grind higher: NY Fed
- MarketRebelsThe NY Fed's 5-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations has been stuck at, or about 3.0% for the last year...there is something about 3.0% and it may not be a good thing if expectations were to rise from here.
- PiQMarketsMarket Quick Take - S&P 500 sets a fourth record before Fed minutes - 07 October 2026
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- BusinessIndian households expect inflation to rise sharply over the next three months and one year, reflecting concerns over price pressures that prompted the central bank to increase the benchmark rate for the first time in nearly four years
- MarketsdayInflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023
- ZerohedgeOne-Year Inflation Expectations Jump To 3 Year HIgh: NY Fed Survey